Wednesday, 16 November 2016

The Possible "Trump effect" on Africa.





Many "solid" Presidential candidates, during their campaign, try to make only a hand full of achievable campaign promises, so as not to disappoint their voters when they eventually win. But Trump, being the American version of President Buhari, made as much 76 campaign promises, some of which are so unrealistic that he is starting to go back on a few of them, even before Jan 20, 2017.
Donald Trump, in an interview with Wall Street Journal, said that he will  to keep some aspects of Obama Care as he now thinks it beneficial and he like them, also because of President Obama reached out to him and talked to him about the advantages of Obama Care, so out of respect for the President he is going to give good thought to keeping it running.

This is his now stance on the health care initiative called Obamacare, against his initial campaign outbursts on how he will nullify the disaster called Obamacare and replace it with "something terrific".
Billionaire business man/Reality TV show host/ President-elect Donald Trump is not only going to affect the United States and Mexico with his polices. The "Trump effect" is also going to fizzle downwards to Africa, with Nigeria at the epicenter.

On a yearly basis, the USA hands out aid to African countries in an estimated tune of 12billion dollars.
These aids are in forms of health care, economical, and educational assistance, to as much as 47 African countries. Some of the these aids include the "Presidential Emergency Plan For Aids Relief (PEPFAR)" initiated by President George Bush, for the availability of anti-viral drugs and free health care for people living with HIV/AIDS in Africa. Also, there is the African Growth and Opportunity Act(AGOA) which came into effect 16 years ago, which is aimed at expanding US trade and investment with Africa. This act is supposed to stimulate economic growth and facilitate Africa's integration to the global economy by cutting down on import and export duties on various goods among  other things. This costs the US economy a number of billion dollars, money the Donald Trump administration will like to recoup and infuse back into the US economy to "Make America Great Again". However, cutting down on these aids is likely to spell doom for small African economies like Malawi and Tanzania as they depend a lot on these aids to run their government.

It is true that Donald Trump did not make any assertive statement on his intention on the African continent during his campaign and all we can do at best is speculate. However, from his body language and highly conservative stance on various issues, it is suspected by many that Donald Trump will be a linear President for the United States alone, as against the Big Brother role previous Presidents of the United States have played to the world especially to Africa.

According to Professor Peter Vale, " Donald Trump's foreign policy on Africa is likely to be 'where is that?'", as it is no news that Donald Trumps main aim is to "make AMERICA great again" for Americans, and that is likely to mean a lot of borrowing to spend capital projects, improve the US economy at the expense of humanitarian aids to some African counties like Somalia that will be in dire need of them.

On the issue of security, Donald Trump promised the Americans and the world that he is going to knock the sh** out of ISIS, put "boots on the ground" in ISIS strong holds, take over ISIS' main source of wealth and cataclysm, the Iraqi oil, and keep it for America, and American war veterans.

As opportunistic as his plan may sound, it does sound like a good plan, even to Iraq themselves. And if Donald Trump's words are anything to go by, then countries like Nigeria, Kenya, and Libya should start preparing for Thanksgiving pretty early as a big blow to al-Baghdadi's ISIS will leave other ISIS affiliates like Boko Haram and al-Shabab open to easy take downs.

More so, Donald Trump's conservative views on issues like gay marriage and legalizing abortion is absolutely terrific news for African leaders who are equally conservative in nature as the emergence of Trump to the seat in the Oval office will mean the absence of President Obama breathing down their necks to legalize LGBT unions in their various countries.

Furthermore, it is suspected that Donald Trump's very radical stance on immigration laws is likely to be the biggest blow on Africans, especially Nigerians who see the United States as a near heaven destination where all problems are one step closer to getting solution-ed. On pre-election night, popular Nigerian comedian and public figure Ali Baba, took to his twitter account to urge Nigerians with green cards to vote for Hillary Clinton, so that other aspiring Nigerian green card holders can live to see their "green dreams" come through.

However, with Donald Trump's promise to end "birth right citizenship" and deport as many as 11million illegal immigrants currently living in the US, the dreams of many, for greener pastures in "God's own country", now "Trump's owned country", is hereby closer to collapse, now more than ever.

"I am unpredictable, and America will have to be unpredictable to win". The unpredictability of Donald Trump will be a massive problem in understanding and planning the next few years in world politics, business and investments, especially for African leaders like President Buhari, who are in some level bromance with the Chinese government, for economical gains, as one is unaware of what shape Donald Trump's economical polices are going to take, or how he really intends to compete with the Chinese in the world market, as he has earlier promised. It is no doubt that, for America to match China's dollar for dollar in investments will mean an everyday Christmas for emerging markets like Nigeria, South Africa , Kenya. However, the strategies Trump intends to take in fulfilling his whooping 76 campaign promises, and the result of "The Donald's 'Trump'" is what we all have to wait and see.

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